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For the last ten years, the advantage held by Democrats in the number of registered voters has been steadily declining, until this year, when their numbers jumped by almost a hundred thousand voters. Democrats now have 317 thousand more voters than the GOP. One in 5 Florida voters remains a member of neither party. Speaking to a Democratic Club today, Florida State University Political Scientist Lance de Haven Smith says the increase does not necessarily guarantee victory in November.

“The race in November will depend on the turnout,” de Haven Smith said.  “If there’s a very high turnout, Democrats will sweep across the country and it won’t just be at the Presidential level, it’ll be at all levels. If there’s not a big turnout, I think that you will see a very close election. It’s clearly the Democrats race to lose, but it’s loseable if they don’t get out the vote.”

Turnout among Independents is usually low, which means if Democrats turn out their base, their chances of winning increase.