The latest Quinnipiac poll of likely voters shows the race between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist tied at 42 percent. Independent Adrian Wyllie is at 7 percent. The poll is the first to question voters who have already case a ballot.
Rick Scott remains ahead with men, Charlie Crist with women voters. More men then women are voting for the Libertarian. Pollster Peter Brown says the race is a dead heat.
“A Republican who can break even with women will win the election. A Democrat who can break even among men will win the election.Neither one of that is going to happen in this race, and that’s why it’s so close.”
Nearly one million absentee votes have already been cast. This is the first poll to survey those who have voted. The poll was conducted before early voting began, and there is a surprise. Charlie Crist leads Rick Scott by four points among absentee ballots cast.
The lead, while still in the margin of error, is important because Republicans traditionally outpace Democrats by up to a two to one margin in mail in ballots. Pollster Brown has no explanation.
“A dead heat is a dead heat” says Brown
90 percent of Scott or Crist voters say their mind is made up. But one in four voting for Libertarian Adrian Wyllie say they may change their vote. Over three polls Wyllie’s support has dropped from 9 to 8 to 7 percent. Pollster Brown says Wyllie voter defections could be the difference. “If it gets down to five or four percent for Mr. Wyllie, that’s going to be another point or two that someone else, either Crist of Scott’s is gonna get. And in a race this close, that could be the difference.”
One constant in the poll…neither Scott or Crist is well liked…which means voters will be choosing whom they believe to be the lesser of two evils.
The poll was conducted before a disagreement over the presence of a fan at the second debate..which has become known as Fangate. The candidates held their third debate last night.
Posted in State News | Comments Off